----------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------
year 5, Issue 2 (Semi-Annual 2020)                   CIAUJ 2020, 5(2): 195-207 | Back to browse issues page

XML Persian Abstract Print

Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:

Ayashm M. An Analysis of the Megatrends Effects on the Future of the Iranian-Islamic City through Structural Analysis and Scenario Planning: A Case Study of the Historical Context of Tabriz. CIAUJ 2020; 5 (2) :195-207
URL: http://ciauj-tabriziau.ir/article-1-239-en.html
University Instructor and Urban Planner, Tabriz, Iran , masoumeh.ayashm1389@gmail.com
Abstract:   (4453 Views)
The world today is witnessing an ever-increasing number of events taking place across countries. These events, which are the driving forces of globalization, are progressing and transforming cities at all levels, and levels as megatrends and trends. As a result, new needs and issues are emerging in cities that take cities away from their core values. The cities of Iran are no exception to this rule and have been affected by these megatrends and trends. The megatrend refers to a phenomenon that, given its previous developments, can be seen to have a certain direction and can be expected to move in the same direction in the future. The megatrend refers to regularities that consist of a combination of several smaller sub-trends. Therefore, the most important characteristic of the megatrend is its high importance, high probability and its continuity over time. Therefore, the main purpose of this article is to "understand the effects of current megatrends and trends on the Iranian-Islamic city and future of that, with a structural analysis and scenario planning approach". The main question of the research is: What is the future of the Iranian-Islamic city in the face of megatrends?  And what are the trends in the contemporary Iranian city and the trends in the historical context of the city of Tabriz? The research method is a complex combination, using: library and documentary study, Delphi technique (questionnaire, in-depth interview), structural analysis technique and scenario writing. The first step in future research is to discover the trends that are currently underway so according to the studies and surveys conducted, 21 trends in contemporary Iranian cities were identified. Then, the 12 trends of Tabriz city were explained and using the technique of structural analysis and scenario planning, the future ​​of the Iranian-Islamic city in the face of the trends of Tabriz city in the form of triple urban scenarios (optimistic and golden scenario, pessimistic and catastrophic scenario and continuation scenario) were analyzed. One of the important results of the present dissertation is the orientation of the third scenario towards the second scenario, which re-emphasizes the need for a serious review of the policies of the historical context of the Tabriz city. Among the twelve trends in the historical context of Tabriz, the trend of virtual communication, the trend of urban issues, the trend of consumerism, the trend of machine life and the trend of apartment living have the most tendency towards the pessimistic scenario. This indicates the need for special attention and recognition in the policies of organs and institutions related to these trends. Ignoring the trends and their effects on the city and its values and insisting on current processes in the city structure, cause irreparable damage to cities. Therefore, it is necessary to have a conscious view of trends and their initial identification. This can create many grounds for changes in urban management systems and other urban layers and being the initial basis for the same great movement in Iranian-Islamic valuable cities.
Full-Text [PDF 1394 kb]   (774 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Original Article | Subject: Conceptualization of theorizing in Islamic architecture and urban ism
Received: 2019/11/29 | Accepted: 2021/01/28 | ePublished: 2021/02/16

1. Aliahmadi, Reza and Mohammad Fathian, Fatemeh Saghafi. 2007. Rovide process analysis methodology for strategy formation and foresight. Modiriat-e Farda Journal (18): 4-14. [In Persian]
2. Dixon, Patrick. 2016. The Future of (almost) everything. Kindle Edition.
3. Dollatshah, Emad. 2016. Futurology and futurism. Shiraz: Institute of Southern Futurists. [In Persian]
4. Fanni, Zohreh. 2014. Development, sustainability and globalization. Tehran: National Center for Globalization Publications. [In Persian]
5. Moqimi, Abolfazl. 2015. Future epistemology of theoretical approaches to urban planning, architecture and building industry. Journal of urban and rural management (38): 75-104. [In Persian]
6. Moller, Klaus-Johannes. 2012. A critical review of the megatrends and their implications for procurement. Master Thesis at University of Twente, School of Management and Governance. 1th supervisor: Prof. Dr. Holger Schiele. 2th supervisor: Niels Pulles.
7. Naisbitt, John. 1982. Megatrends: Ten New Direction Transforming Our Lives. New York: Warner Books.
8. NejadEbrahimi, Ahad. 2014. The fence of Najaf Gholi Khan and the formation and development of Tabriz in the Qajar era. Journal of Modern Historical Studies 1(1): 107-121. [In Persian]
9. Pirbabaei, Mohammadtaghi. 2018. An Introduction to the Epistemology of Islamic Urbanism in the Age of Globalization. The first international conference on architecture and urban planning of the Islamic world in the era of globalization. Tabriz Islamic art University. Tabriz. Nowember 14. [In Persian]
10. Schwenker, Burkhard, Tobias Raffel. 2014. THOUGHTS Megatrends. Roland Berger: school of strategy and economics.
11. Seyyedmirzaei, Seyyed Mohammad. 2014. A Look at the Future of the City. Journal of Humanities (41-42): 85-104. [In Persian]
12. Sheate, William, Tony Zamparutti, Suzan Bennetti, Melita Rogeli. 2007. EEA Research Foresight for Environmental and Sustainability (Final report). Collingwood Environmental Planning. Milieu Environmental Law & policy.
13. Tan, Sor-hoon.2005. Challenging Citizenship: Group Membership and Cultural Identity in a Global age. Aldershot: Ashgate.
14. Toivonen, Marja. 2004. Expertise as Business (Long-term development and future prospects of knowledge-intensive business services (KIBS)). Helsinki University of technology, Laboratory of industrial management. Doctoral dissertation series.
15. Ziari, Keramatollah, Taha Rabbani, Ramin Saeed. 2017. Future research of a new paradigm in planning with emphasis on urban and regional planning. Tehran: University of Tehran Press. [In Persian]

Send email to the article author

Rights and permissions
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

© 2023 CC BY-NC 4.0 | Culture of Islamic Architecture and Urbanism Journal

Designed & Developed by : Yektaweb