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year 5, Issue 2 (Fall & Winter 2020)                   CIAUJ 2020, 5(2): 195-207 | Back to browse issues page


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Ayashm M. An Analysis of the Megatrends Effects on the Future of the Iranian-Islamic City through Structural Analysis and Scenario Planning: A Case Study of the Historical Context of Tabriz. CIAUJ. 2020; 5 (2) :195-207
URL: http://ciauj-tabriziau.ir/article-1-239-en.html
Urbanism researcher , masoumeh.ayashm1389@gmail.com
Abstract:   (3265 Views)
The world today is witnessing an ever-increasing number of events taking place across countries. These events, which are the driving forces of globalization, are progressing and transforming cities at all levels, and levels as megatrends and trends. As a result, new needs and issues are emerging in cities that take cities away from their core values. The cities of Iran are no exception to this rule and have been affected by these megatrends and trends. The megatrend refers to a phenomenon that, given its previous developments, can be seen to have a certain direction and can be expected to move in the same direction in the future. The megatrend refers to regularities that consist of a combination of several smaller sub-trends. Therefore, the most important characteristic of the megatrend is its high importance, high probability and its continuity over time. Therefore, the main purpose of this article is to "understand the effects of current megatrends and trends on the Iranian-Islamic city and future of that, with a structural analysis and scenario planning approach". The main question of the research is: What is the future of the Iranian-Islamic city in the face of megatrends?  And what are the trends in the contemporary Iranian city and the trends in the historical context of the city of Tabriz? The research method is a complex combination, using: library and documentary study, Delphi technique (questionnaire, in-depth interview), structural analysis technique and scenario writing. The first step in future research is to discover the trends that are currently underway so according to the studies and surveys conducted, 21 trends in contemporary Iranian cities were identified. Then, the 12 trends of Tabriz city were explained and using the technique of structural analysis and scenario planning, the future ​​of the Iranian-Islamic city in the face of the trends of Tabriz city in the form of triple urban scenarios (optimistic and golden scenario, pessimistic and catastrophic scenario and continuation scenario) were analyzed. One of the important results of the present dissertation is the orientation of the third scenario towards the second scenario, which re-emphasizes the need for a serious review of the policies of the historical context of the Tabriz city. Among the twelve trends in the historical context of Tabriz, the trend of virtual communication, the trend of urban issues, the trend of consumerism, the trend of machine life and the trend of apartment living have the most tendency towards the pessimistic scenario. This indicates the need for special attention and recognition in the policies of organs and institutions related to these trends. Ignoring the trends and their effects on the city and its values and insisting on current processes in the city structure, cause irreparable damage to cities. Therefore, it is necessary to have a conscious view of trends and their initial identification. This can create many grounds for changes in urban management systems and other urban layers and being the initial basis for the same great movement in Iranian-Islamic valuable cities.
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Type of Study: Research |
Received: 2019/11/29 | Accepted: 2021/01/28 | ePublished: 2021/02/16

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